The Premier League title race is set to once again be tightly fought out at the top of the table as champions Manchester City attempt to hunt down runaway leaders Arsenal.
Pep Guardiola's City had to hold off competition from Liverpool last season but the Reds are nowhere near the jostling for first place, with the Gunners - led by Mikel Arteta - looking to break the holders' status quo grip on the title.
FiveThirtyEight uses its Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings to predict every fixture throughout the Premier League season. The current standings hint at a closely fought remainder of the season.
Projected 2022/23 Premier League table
Position | Club | Projected points |
|---|---|---|
1 | Arsenal | 83 |
2 | Manchester City | 83 |
3 | Manchester United | 71 |
4 | Newcastle | 69 |
5 | Liverpool | 69 |
6 | Tottenham | 62 |
7 | Brighton | 61 |
8 | Chelsea | 60 |
9 | Brentford | 53 |
10 | Fulham | 51 |
11 | Aston Villa | 50 |
12 | Crystal Palace | 47 |
13 | Leicester | 42 |
14 | West Ham | 42 |
15 | Leeds | 41 |
16 | Southampton | 35 |
17 | Wolves | 34 |
18 | Everton | 34 |
19 | Bournemouth | 33 |
20 | Nottingham Forest | 32 |
*04/01/2022
It could come down to goal difference to separate Arsenal and Manchester City at the top of the league, with both currently predicted to end up on 83 points.
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There may also be some changes in the Champions League placings. Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham all ended up in the top four last year but are each enduring tough seasons. Manchester United are currently the favourites to take third, coming out with 71 predicted points.
Newcastle continue to make strides under Eddie Howe and the goals of Miguel Almiron have powered them to a projected finish of fourth, where they'd sit just ahead of Liverpool in fifth. Instead of the top four, Tottenham will be holding off the likes of Brighton and Chelsea for sixth.
Should Brentford finish ninth as currently predicted, it would become their new best finish, eclipsing last season when they came 13th. Fulham squeeze into the top ten in a remarkable achievement for Marco Silva, while there's the mid-table obscurity of 11th and 12th for Aston Villa and Crystal Palace respectively.
Leicester, West Ham and Leeds are predicted to ease away from the relegation zone, but there's little to separate the bottom five.
Southampton and Wolves are currently predicted to avoid the drop in 16th and 17th, though Wolves have the same amount of points as Everton, who take the first relegation spot. The Toffees did pull off a dramatic escape last term after Frank Lampard replaced Rafa Benitez, but some abysmal results against Bournemouth, Wolves and Brighton have plunged the club back into uncertainty.
Bournemouth themselves sit outside of the relegation zone at present but aren't expected to stave off the drop, dropping back down to the Championship with 33 points. They'll be joined in England's second tier by Nottingham Forest, who are predicted to end up with 32 points and finish bottom.
