- 2024/25 Europa League kicks off this week
- Man Utd, Tottenham and Rangers among sides hoping to lift title
- Opta project each participating club's chances of glory
The Europa League - the holder of UEFA's premier theme music - returns this week with clubs around the continent hopeful of claiming silverware.
A competition that regularly features fallen giants, aspiring pretenders and outright minnows, Europe's secondary club tournament to the Champions League delivers drama season after season and, with the number of participating teams increasing from 32 to 36, there's more football than ever to enjoy.
British sides like Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur and Rangers are all featuring in the Europa League in 2024/25, but where do they rank among the favourites?
Here's who Opta have calculated to have the best chance of claiming glory this year.
Supercomputer ranks favourites for 2024/25 Europa League
Last season's winners Atalanta won't feature in the Europa League this time around, given they gained entry into the Champions League instead. Therefore, a new champion will be crowned in 2024/25 and there is a clear favourite ahead of Matchday 1, according to Opta.
The statisticians give Portuguese giants Porto the greatest chance of success. The Primeira Liga outfit have won the Champions League twice, the most recent success coming under Jose Mourinho in 2004, and have also been triumphant in the Europa League in 2003 and 2011. While their league finish of third wasn't good enough to have them dining at the top table of continental football, Porto still have talents like Samu Omorodion, Fabio Vieira and Diogo Costa who'll be able to dent the hopes of other competing sides.
Porto have a projected 17.8% chance of winning the tournament, placing them a fair bit ahead of second-ranked Athletic Club. Last season's Copa del Rey winners boast Euro 2024 winner Nico Williams and his brother Inaki in their ranks and will be stern opposition for any team they come up against.
One of the more surprising favourites are Slavia Prague, who have a 9.6% chance of lifting the title. The Czechs couldn't get past the last 16 of the Europa League last term and slipped up in Champions League qualifiers this summer, while they weren't even the dominant force in the Czech First League, finishing behind Sparta Prague.
Tottenham Hotspur are tipped as the strongest representatives from the Premier League. Spurs haven't enjoyed a decent run in Europe since reaching the Champions League final in 2019 and have plenty of defensive issues that could be exploited by other trophy hopefuls. However, given manager Ange Postecoglou's comments about his success in second seasons at his previous clubs, they should be going all out for victory.
Roma came close to winning the Europa League under Jose Mourinho, having previously claimed the Conference League, but the Serie A side are in disarray after firing Daniele De Rossi and will need to turn their fortunes around pretty swiftly if they are to seriously compete with some of the main favourites.
Erik ten Has has delivered two trophies in two seasons at Manchester United but is yet to enjoy a truly impressive European run at Old Trafford, most recently being knocked out of the Champions League at the group stages in grim fashion. Their development remains difficult to track accurately but their cup successes will give their Dutch boss hope of success this time around.
Close to the bottom of the projections are Scottish Premiership giants Rangers. Runners-up in 2021/22, the Gers will have to run the gauntlet to even reach the knockout rounds, having been paired against the likes of Lyon, Tottenham and Manchester United.
Turkey's Besiktas, Romania's FCSB, Latvia's RFS and Sweden's Elfsborg haven't even been included in Opta's graphic, but if any of them made it out of the league phase it would be a major achievement.
Rank | Team | Probability of winning Europa League (%) |
|---|---|---|
1 | Porto | 17.8 |
2 | Athletic Club | 10.9 |
3 | Slavia Prague | 9.6 |
4 | Tottenham Hotspur | 8.6 |
5 | Roma | 8.2 |
6 | Manchester United | 7.1 |
7 | Lazio | 6.1 |
8 | Galatasaray | 5.2 |
9 | Real Sociedad | 3.6 |
10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3.6 |
11 | Fenerbahce | 3.1 |
12 | Nice | 3.1 |
13 | Braga | 1.7 |
14 | Lyon | 1.4 |
15 | PAOK | 1.2 |
16 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 1.2 |
17 | Olympiacos | 1.2 |
18 | Hoffenheim | 1.1 |
19 | Viktoria Plzen | 0.9 |
20 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 0.8 |
21 | Midtjylland | 0.7 |
22 | Bodo/Glimt | 0.6 |
23 | Anderlecht | 0.6 |
24 | Twente | 0.3 |
25 | Qarabag | 0.2 |
26 | Ajax | 0.2 |
27 | Rangers | 0.2 |
28 | AZ | 0.2 |
29 | Malmo | 0.2 |
30 | Dynamo Kyiv | 0.1 |
31 | Ferencvaros | 0.1 |
32 | Ludogorets | 0.1 |
