- Matchday 4 produced some incredible upsets in the Champions League
- Arsenal, Aston Villa and Manchester City all tasted defeat on the road
- Reigning champions Real Madrid suffered dismal loss on home soil
Matchday 4 in the Champions League offered up some stunning and unexpected results, shaking up the standings halfway through the league phase.
Liverpool were the only Premier League outfit to avoid defeat - beating Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 on Xabi Alonso's Anfield return - while Real Madrid were stunned on home soil by an impressive Milan side. There was another loss for Paris Saint-Germain, while Juventus stumbled to an underwhelming draw.
The newly-expanded and reformatted Champions League is certainly adding to the drama as things stand but what do Matchday 4's results mean for the table come the eighth and final match of the league phase?
Well, Opta's supercomputer has been working overtime to project how the final table may look - and remember, these are just predictions.
Automatic qualifiers (1st to 8th)
The top eight sides after all eight games are played automatically qualify for the last 16 of the changed Champions League. Liverpool are the only side that have a perfect record after four straight wins and Opta believe that they will maintain their lead at the summit of the table. They're given a 95.1% chance of finishing in the automatic qualification spots.
After their 1-0 victory over Arsenal on Wednesday, 2022/23 finalists Inter are predicted a second-placed finish. They are projected to earn 17.6 points in the league phase, 0.5 more than Sporting CP after their 4-1 demolition of Manchester City on Tuesday. However, Ruben Amorim's departure could impact their chances of qualifying automatically.
After a disappointing defeat in their opener, Barcelona have scored 14 goals in their subsequent three matches. They will finish fourth according to Opta's 50,000 simulations, followed closely by last season's runners-up Borussia Dortmund, who have also won three and lost one of their first four games.
Despite being humbled by Sporting midweek, 2022/23 winners Manchester City are predicted sixth. They still set tenth at present despite setbacks against Inter and the Portuguese champions, with Europa League winners Atalanta projected to place just behind them in seventh after an unbeaten start to their European campaign.
Monaco round out the top eight as they continue to sparkle under Adi Hutter. An opening day victory over Barcelona has been followed by a draw and two victories, currently placing them third in the 36-team league.
Position | Team | Predicted points |
|---|---|---|
1. | Liverpool | 19.8 |
2. | Inter | 17.6 |
3. | Sporting CP | 17.1 |
4. | Barcelona | 16.4 |
5. | Borussia Dortmund | 15.9 |
6. | Man City | 15.2 |
7. | Atalanta | 14.9 |
8. | Monaco | 14.8 |
Play-off participants (9th to 24th)
Organising the Opta data by predicted points totals, there is worrying news for holders Real Madrid. The 15-time champions have won two and lost two of their four ties and currently sit 18th in the league phase table. They're predicted to finish a place lower, which would see them enter the play-off round as an unseeded team - ninth to 16th are seeded and 17th to 24th are unseeded.
Paris Saint-Germain are in an even more concerning position. They have managed just four points under Luis Enrique and are projected to finish 24th, just on the cusp of elimination. The French champions face Bayern Munich and Man City in their final four games.
Juventus and Atletico Madrid are also expected to be unseeded teams qualifying for the play-off round, with both looking increasingly unlikely to secure automatic progression to the last 16. The latter did topple PSG midweek in the dying stages to keep their hopes alive.
Looking further up the standings, Bundesliga titans Bayer Leverkusen are predicted to finish tenth, four places and 0.5 points ahead of Bayern Munich. The reigning German champions would have placed higher had they not been tonked by Liverpool in their most recent outing.
Aston Villa are one of the sides to beat Bayern this term but suffered their first European defeat on Wednesday, losing 1-0 at Club Brugge thanks to a comical penalty. Despite having nine points in the bag, they are projected to finish two spots below Mikel Arteta's Arsenal in the final rankings. The Gunners are still given a 37.5% chance of finishing in the top eight despite a mediocre campaign.
Celtic have made an impressive start to their 2024/25 Champions League journey despite a 7-1 defeat to Dortmund on Matchday 2. They are predicted to come 15th, two places behind seven-time champions Milan and three spots off debutants and surprise package Brest.
Position | Team | Predicted points |
|---|---|---|
9. | Arsenal | 14.7 |
10. | Bayer Leverkusen | 14.5 |
11. | Aston Villa | 14.4 |
12. | Brest | 14.2 |
13. | Milan | 14.1 |
14. | Bayern Munich | 14.0 |
15. | Celtic | 13.2 |
16. | Lille | 13.1 |
17. | Atletico Madrid | 13.1 |
18. | Juventus | 12.8 |
19. | Real Madrid | 12.8 |
20. | PSV Eindhoven | 11.9 |
21. | Stuttgart | 11.6 |
22. | Benfica | 10.9 |
23. | Dinamo Zagreb | 10.9 |
24. | PSG | 10.4 |
Eliminated sides (25th to 36th)
It's hardly surprising to see that the likes of Young Boys, Slovan Bratislava, Red Star Belgrade and Sturm Graz are all predicted to tank out of the competition before the knockout stages, but RB Leipzig are surprise under-performers in this year's competition. Four defeats on the bounce leaves them in a perilous position despite a strong start in the Bundesliga.
Debutants Girona haven't handled elite European football with the same grace as Brest and are likely to be eliminated after their 4-0 thumping at PSV Eindhoven midweek. Similarly, Italian side Bologna, who have never been in the competition since its rebranding, are unlikely to progress after one draw and three defeats.
Former Liverpool assistant manager Pep Lijnders secured a first win in the league phase with Salzburg on Wednesday, beating Arne Slot's former side Feyenoord. The former are still unlikely to reach the top 24, while the latter are knocking on the door despite a disappointing start to the campaign.
Position | Team | Predicted points |
|---|---|---|
25. | Feyenoord | 10.4 |
26. | Club Brugge | 9.2 |
27. | Sparta Prague | 7.6 |
28. | Girona | 6.9 |
29. | Shakhtar Donetsk | 6.7 |
30. | RB Leipzig | 5.7 |
31. | Bologna | 5.1 |
32. | Salzburg | 5.1 |
33. | Red Star Belgrade | 3.8 |
34. | Sturm Graz | 3.1 |
35. | Young Boys | 2.9 |
36. | Slovan Bratislava | 2.1 |
